Washing hands is a major way to prevent flu.

Research released today by some of the world’s leading disease modeling experts estimates that up to 32% of the population of many cities and counties could be infected with H1N1 this season – and that there could be up to 2.2 billion cases worldwide. Those same researchers, from the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute (VIDI) at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, suggest that children will be responsible for many of those infections.

Stay Home

If you or someone in your family gets sick, and you suspect flu, job one is to stay home. No work, no school. Because the less you are out in public, the less likely you are to infect others. “If you do get mild symptoms, the last thing you want to do is run out and spread it to everybody,” says Jim Sears, M.D., a pediatrician with the renowned Sears family and co-host of “The Doctors” television show. “If you are feeling ill, even if it’s just a cold, do your co-workers and your classmates a favor by just staying home for a little while.”

“A little while,” according to infectious disease specialist Pia Pannaraj, M.D., of Childrens Hospital Los Angeles, is until any fever has been gone – without the aid of Tylenol or any other medication – for at least 24 hours.

Watch For Fever

Fever, by the way, is one of the symptoms to watch for. Influenza tends to bring on fever earlier in the illness, and fever tends to climb higher, according to Maureen Lichtveld, M.D., a former CDC researcher who now heads up the Flu Emergency Task Force at Tulane University. Fever should prompt a call to your doctor, who can tell a lot over the phone by hearing about your symptoms, and whether or not you have spent time somewhere H1N1 is prevalent. “Don’t go in, but give a call,” Lichtveld says. You could save yourself an office visit (and exposure to other sick people).

Even if you or your child end up in the doctor’s office, it’s not likely you’ll get an H1N1 test – or want one. It’s pretty unpleasant, involving running a flexible swab through the nose all the way to the back of the throat. And it can take several days to get results. “When the outbreak first came out, we were testing everybody,” says Pannaraj. But now doctors won’t likely test unless the patient has an underlying health condition, or is ill enough to need hospitalization.

Take It Easy

Unless your symptoms are severe, you’re also not likely to get a dose of TamiFlu, the antiretroviral used to treat influenza. It has been effective in treating H1N1, but doctors are worried about creating resistant strains and so want to limit use to the most severe cases. There have already been a few cases of TamiFlu-resistant H1N1. “Parents come in and say, ‘My child might have been exposed, and I can’t really afford for them to get sick right now. We’re going on vacation, or I cant miss work, so can’t I just give them TamiFlu for 10 days?’” says Dennis Woo, M.D., former chair of the department of pediatrics at UCLA Medical Center. “It becomes an issue of convenience rather than necessity.”

Instead, most of us will be relying on what doctors call “supportive care” at home. It means rest, lots of liquids, and treating fever with over-the-counter medications. Pannaraj says that as long as the patient is breathing comfortably, hydrated, and acting normally, things are fine. If any of that changes, or if someone who seemed to be recovering from the flu suddenly gets sick again, talk to the doctor. That could be a sign of secondary infection.

Stay Informed

The VIDI researchers, whose work was published in today’s online edition of Science Express, recommend a vaccination program that first targets 70% of U.S. children as the best way to stem the H1N1 outbreak – which they believe will peak mid-October. But as H1N1 vaccine isn’t yet available to the general public, other preventive measures will have to suffice for now.

One more thing Lichtveld urges parents to do: Stay informed. Following developments and expert advice through credible sources like the CDC   and HHS  (you can reach them directly online) rather than news media hype can help keep fear at bay, and equip you to keep your family well. “Fear is the most stifling condition you can be in,” she says. “We have a lot more power than we think we have, as individual community members and as savvy parents.”

Staying calm and informed, taking reasonable precautions, and knowing what to do if you get sick are the keys to weathering this year’s flu season. And keep in mind these parting words from Woo: “It’s very possible that this will turn out not to be as serious as people think.”